Back

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases's content profile, based on 466 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.44% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Characterizing the Burden of Scrub Typhus in Nepalese Children using Representative School-Based Cross-Sectional Serosurveys

Naga, S. R.; Shahi, S. B.; Gosai, S.; Maharjan, M.; Katuwal, N.; Morrison, E.; Andrews, J.; Shrestha, R.; Tamrakar, D.; Aiemjoy, K.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361601 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
72.0%
Show abstract

Background Scrub typhus, an acute bacterial infection caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is an important, under-recognized etiology of febrile illness in South Asia. Accurate surveillance for scrub typhus in Nepal is challenging due to non-specific symptoms and limited diagnostic tools. Methods We conducted a representative school-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Kavrepalanchok and Dolakha, Nepal between November 2021 and April 2022 using two-stage sampling, we randomly selected 13 public schools and then up to 100 children aged 4-18 years per school. We collected capillary blood samples and tested for IgG responses to Orientia tsutsugamushi-derived recombinant 56-kDa antigen using commercially available ELISA kits. We estimated seroincidence rates using previously-published models of antibody decay dynamics from confirmed scrub typhus cases. We compared seroincidence to seroprevalence estimates using cutoffs derived from Gaussian finite mixture models applied to the study population. Results We enrolled a total of 827 children (participation rate: 94.8%). The median age was 10 years (IQR: 8-13), and 53.08% of the participants were female. The overall seroincidence rate was 6.3 new infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.7- 8.4), and the rate was slightly higher in peri-urban Kavrepalanchok (7.3; 95% CI: 4.9 - 10.3) compared with rural Dolakha (5.3; 95% CI: 3.3 - 8.5). Seroincidence increased with age, from 3.6 new infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 1.4- 9.7) among children aged 4- 7 years to 9.4 (95% CI: 6.2-14.3) among children aged 14-18 years. Seroincidence was higher in females (8.3; 95% CI: 5.9 -11.8) than in males (4.1; 95% CI: 2.4 - 6.9) (p=0.02). The overall seroprevalence was 6.5% (95% CI: 4.9-8.4) and followed a similar age and geographic trend to the seroincidence rate. Discussion Our findings reveal a substantial burden of pediatric scrub typhus in the Kavrepalanchok and Dolakha districts of Nepal. Seroincidence increased with age and was higher among females. School-based serosurveys offer an efficient sampling frame to rapidly assess population-level scrub typhus transmission intensity among children and adolescents, though may not represent out-of-school populations.

2
Case Fatality of Leptospirosis in the Dominican Republic, 2012-2026: A 14-Year National Surveillance Analysis

Sanchez, J. J.; Alcantara, L. V.; De Luna, D.; Aleuy, O. A.; Bellon, M. B.; Cruz Raposo, J. L.; Dye, T. D. V.

2026-09-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361950 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
70.0%
Show abstract

Background: Case fatality reflects the quality and timeliness of clinical care for leptospirosis, yet no study has examined it at a national level in the Dominican Republic (DR), where leptospirosis is endemic. We describe the case fatality rate (CFR) of leptospirosis in the DR between 2012 and 2026 and identify associations with mortality. Methods: We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study, using national surveillance records merged with a discharge-condition extract via a composite key. We calculated CFR with Wilson 95% confidence intervals among 5,412 valid cases (suspected, probable, or confirmed) reported from January 2012 through June 2026. We compared proportions with Pearson's chi-square test, assessed annual trend with ordinary least squares linear regression, and fitted multivariable logistic regression models to account for confounding. Results: Overall CFR was 8.5% (460/5,412), with no significant annual trend (p=0.372). CFR was higher in men than women (p < 0.001) and increased significantly with age (p < 0.001). Male gender (OR: 1.79; 95%CI: 1.18-2.73) and pre-existing comorbidity (OR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.21- 2.57) were independent predictors of death. Clinical complications were the strongest predictor in the adjusted model (OR: 3.16; 95%CI: 2.17-4.61), attenuating the gender effect. CFR varied widely by province (2.43-22.22%) and correlated negatively with incidence at the province level (p = 0.066). Conclusions: Leptospirosis case fatality is concentrated among men, people with comorbidity, and those who develop clinical complications. These national, long-term findings can help prioritize clinical and surveillance resources as extreme weather events are expected to intensify across the Caribbean.

3
A mechanistic statistical model of dengue dynamics in an endemic region

Luna-Martinez, N.; Cruz-Rodriguez, E. X.; Bernal-Castro, E. A.

2026-09-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361961 medRxiv
Top 0.6%
18.6%
Show abstract

Background Dengue is a major public health challenge, and predictive models are crucial for early warning systems. However, many current modeling practices rely exclusively on climatic factors or employ complex algorithms that lack the interpretability needed for informed public health decision-making. To address these shortcomings, we developed and validated a multidimensional, interpretable statistical model to predict monthly dengue incidence. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with a Negative Binomial distribution to analyze 14 years (2010-2023) of spatiotemporal data from 37 municipalities in Huila, Colombia, an endemic region. The model integrates non-linear and lagged effects of climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. The final model underwent rigorous external validation on an independent test set (2021-2023). Our model demonstrated high predictive discrimination (R2 = 0.743, Spearman's {rho} = 0.657), accurately capturing the timing of epidemic outbreaks. Key findings include the identification of an optimal thermal window for transmission at 27-28{degrees}C, a threshold effect for precipitation above 800 mm, and a saturation dynamic in outbreak autocorrelation. Conclusions/Significance This mechanistically-informed statistical approach provides a robust and transparent tool for epidemiological surveillance, successfully balancing high predictive performance with the explanatory power needed for effective, data-driven public health interventions.

4
Female contraceptive cover duration for miltefosine-containing regimens for the treatment of women with leishmaniasis

Chu, W.-Y.; Alves, F.; Dorlo, T. P. C.

2026-09-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.31.26360682 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
15.1%
Show abstract

Introduction Miltefosine is the only approved oral antileishmanial agent, but its use in women of childbearing potential (WOCBP) is restricted due to preclinical teratogenicity. Current labeling recommends contraception during treatment and for at least five months thereafter, based solely on its long terminal elimination half-life. This study re-evaluated the required contraceptive duration using an exposure margin-based approach. Methods Virtual populations were generated from anthropometric data of 382 Indian, 4,462 Eastern African, and 4,019 Brazilian WOCBP with leishmaniasis. Published population pharmacokinetic models were used to simulate miltefosine exposure following 14-42-day regimens for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). A developmental safety exposure threshold was derived from the rat no-observed-adverse-effect level (0.6 mg/kg/day for 10 days) and adjusted using a 10-fold safety margin. Contraceptive durations resulting in median residual post-contraception exposure (AUCEOC-{infty}) below this threshold were considered supportive of contraceptive discontinuation. Results The developmental safety exposure threshold was estimated at 2.5 mg{middle dot}day/L. Despite pharmacokinetic differences across geographical regions and disease manifestations, required minimum contraceptive durations were consistent: three months from treatment initiation for the 14-day regimen, four months for 21- and 28-day regimens, and five months for the 42-day regimen. For the 14-day regimen, a single dose of a long-acting injectable contraceptive administered at treatment initiation would provide sufficient coverage. Conclusion An exposure margin-based approach supports shorter contraceptive durations than current recommendations. For the 14-day VL regimen, three months of contraception may provide a practical alternative to current labeling.

5
Location-allocation modeling identifies strategic health facilities to expand access to snakebite antivenom in the Brazilian Amazon

Garcia Campos, M. A.; Rocha, T. A. H.; Perez de Souza, J. V.; Murase, L. S.; Murta, F.; Sartim, M. A.; Sachett, J.; Seabra de Farias, A.; Azevedo Machado, V.; Wen, F. H.; Staton, C. A.; Monteiro, W. M.; Gerardo, C. J.; Nickenig Vissoci, J. R.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26360696 medRxiv
Top 0.8%
13.5%
Show abstract

Background: Snakebite envenoming is a major cause of preventable death and disability in the Brazilian Amazon, where long distances, sparse roads, and dependence on river transport delay access to antivenom. We developed location-allocation models to identify community health centers that could strategically expand access to antivenom in Amazonas State, Brazil. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted an ecological geospatial study using a 2025 WorldPop population surface, locations of existing and candidate health facilities, and a multimodal road-and-river transportation network derived from OpenStreetMap and HydroSHEDS. Population demand was represented by 7,065 populated centroids, including 1,586 within Indigenous territories. We applied a maximize-coverage algorithm with a six-hour travel-time threshold. Two models were developed: one for Amazonas excluding Manaus and one for populations living in Indigenous territories. Both models began with 77 facilities already providing antivenom and progressively added candidate community health centers until coverage gains plateaued. The plateau occurred at 110 facilities, corresponding to 33 additional centers. In the model excluding Manaus, this configuration covered 1,118,831 people, or 75.11% of the target population; 87.61% of those covered could reach care within three hours. In Indigenous territories, coverage increased from 50.55% to 69.50%, reaching 50,434 people, of whom 81.39% were within three hours of care. Validation used 3,595 snakebite notifications from the 30 highest-burden municipalities in the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System during 2023-2025. The median proportion reaching care within six hours was 40.81% in observed data and 72.17% in model estimates. Conclusions/Significance: Strategically equipping 33 additional existing community health centers could substantially expand timely access to antivenom, particularly in rural and Indigenous areas. Location-allocation modeling that incorporates river transportation can support evidence-based decentralization of time-sensitive health services in geographically complex settings.

6
Evaluating the roles of weather and bird dynamics in accurately forecasting West Nile virus infection in mosquitoes and humans

Oshinubi, K.; Covington, J.; Busser, N.; Townsend, J.; Will, J.; Ruberto, I.; Kretschmer, M.; Chen, Y.; Doerry, E.; Hepp, C. M.; Mihaljevic, J. R.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361564 medRxiv
Top 0.9%
11.9%
Show abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a growing public health challenge as climate change reshapes vector population dynamics. West Nile virus (WNV), transmitted between birds and Culex mosquitoes, disproportionately affects Maricopa County, Arizona, one of the nation's highest-burden counties, yet whether models that include weather and avian dynamics improve forecast accuracy remains unclear. Using a 15-year weekly time series of mosquito abundance, mosquito infection prevalence, and human cases, we developed four mechanistic model configurations of varying complexity, from mosquito-human dynamics alone to full models incorporating avian dynamics and weather forcing. We fitted each model to the weekly-observed data, generated probabilistic 1- and 2-week-ahead forecast horizons, and evaluated forecasts against a historical baseline. All configurations fit the data equally regardless of weather or avian dynamics. However, models incorporating both birds and weather created more accurate forecasts of mosquito abundance and mosquito infection prevalence, and all configurations outperformed the baseline for forecasting human cases. Forecast accuracy was highest in summer and fall, and ensemble aggregation sometimes outperformed every individual model, stabilizing predictions across the 15-year record. These findings indicate that avian and weather dynamics are most critical for predicting mosquito-specific data, positioning this framework as a scalable tool for public health planning for WNV surveillance under climate change.

7
Impact of Detection-Isolation-Leakage on the 2026 DRC Bundibugyo Ebolavirus Outbreak

Oraby, T.; Falay, D.; Ndeffo-Mbah, M. L.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361360 medRxiv
Top 0.9%
11.7%
Show abstract

The 17th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, announced on 15 May 2026, was attributed to Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV). Although case isolation is the main control strategy, its effectiveness is compromised when patients escape isolation facilities before recovery. Between 14 May and 17 June 2026, 175 individuals reportedly left isolation facilities without formal discharge across Ituri Province. We assessed how this "isolation leakage" affects community transmission. We refined the SEIHFR framework to distinguish undetected community infections, detected but not-yet-isolated cases, isolated individuals, leakage, funeral-associated transmission, and removals. Using Bayesian inference, we fitted the model to daily Ituri surveillance data, escapee counts, and isolation census records. We estimated the leakage rate, reporting and detection probabilities, and the transmission rate, while fixing other parameters based on the BDBV literature. The model reproduced confirmed cases, deaths, discharges, and escapees. We estimated R_0=3.67 (95% HDI: 2.0-5.7), a leakage rate of {rho} {approx} 0.034 day^-1 (0.022-0.051), and high contact-tracing-driven detection (p_d {approx} 0.91-0.99). Leakage increased the detection-dependent reproduction number [R](p_d) from approximately 3.2 to above 5. Eliminating leakage reduced cumulative infections by about one-third, from 1,120 to 764, while the minimum detection level required for control increased from p_d [&ge;] 0.73 without leakage to p_d [&ge;] 0.87 at the fitted leakage rate. Shortening time to isolation prevented the most infections (73.4%; 59-84), followed by reducing leakage (29.7%; 14-52) and re-isolating escapees (12.6%; 6-24). Delaying leakage reduction until week 4 reduced its benefit from about 27% to below 2%. Isolation leakage represents a major transmission pathway that has until now gone largely unmeasured. While rapid initiation of isolation is highly beneficial, it cannot compensate for permeable isolation; therefore, early, community-driven efforts to control leakage, embedded within a multilayered response, are critical.

8
Identification of genetic variants in Pfs25 and functional evaluation in mosquito infection

Orfano, A.; Cisse, A.; Guo, Y.; Han, L.; Fikadu, N.; Thiam, L. G.; Ba, A.; Li, R.; Pouye, M. N.; Mangou, K.; Moore, A. J.; Sene, S. D.; Diallo, F.; Ngom, E. M.; Sadio, B.; Mbengue, A.; Membi, C.; Ngasala, B.; Bazie, T.; Some, F. A.; Olson, N.; Patel, S. D.; Shapiro, L.; Parikh, S.; Foy, B. D.; Cappello, M.; Vigan-Womas, I.; Premji, Z.; Dabire, R. K.; Ouedraogo, J.-B.; Sheng, Z.; Bei, A. K.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361130 medRxiv
Top 2%
4.8%
Show abstract

Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) are a promising strategy to reduce malaria transmission by targeting parasite stages within the mosquito. However, parasite genetic diversity may limit vaccine efficacy. We used next-generation amplicon deep sequencing to identify non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Pfs25 from 184 Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Senegal, Tanzania, Ghana, and Burkina Faso. Prioritized SNPs were introduced into P. falciparum via CRISPR-Cas9. For the G116C variant, gametocyte development was evaluated by microscopy and qPCR, and mosquito infectivity was assessed by SMFAs. We identified 26 SNPs, including 24 novel variants. Functional assays showed that the Pfs25 G116C mutation did not affect gametocyte development or exflagellation. SMFA showed no significant differences in oocyst prevalence or intensity between mutant and WT parasites. These findings highlight the importance of integrating genetic surveillance with functional validation to guide the development of effective transmission blocking interventions

9
Access to malaria diagnosis and treatment in Zambia in the context of scaling-up community case management: results from repeated national cross-sectional surveys

Mao, Z.; Bennett, A.; Silumbe, K.; Miller, J. M.; Millar, J.; Slater, H.; Yukich, J. O.; Ashton, R. A.; Kyomuhangi, I.; Andrada, A.; Karabo, R.; Eisele, T.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361362 medRxiv
Top 2%
4.7%
Show abstract

Background: Community case management has been scaled up nationally in Zambia over the last decade. However, there is limited evidence on how this nationwide implementation has affected febrile patients' access to malaria diagnosis and treatment in Zambia. Methodology: This study analyzed four rounds of Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) data (2012-2021) to evaluate: 1) proportion of all-ages individuals with fever who sought treatment from a formal provider, 2) proportion of individuals going to CHWs over time, among those who sought treatment at a formal provider, 3) time duration between fever onset and treatment seeking at a formal provider, and 4) proportion of children <5 with malaria that received Artemether-Lumefantrine (AL) treatment. Mixed-effect logit models were employed to examine determinants of treatment-seeking behavior and factors affecting AL receipt among children <5 with malaria cases. Results: The proportion of febrile patients seeking treatment remained below 60% throughout 2012-2021, and AL receipt among children with malaria cases consistently stayed below 50%. The mean interval between fever onset and initial treatment-seeking encounter decreased from 2.42 days in 2012 to 1.71 days in 2021. Among formal care seekers, CHW utilization increased from 1.5% in 2012 to 10.0% in 2018 before declining to 3.2% in 2021. Longer walking time to the nearest health facility was associated with lower odds of treatment seeking, whereas CHW density was not associated with treatment seeking or AL receipt. Children who did not went to formal providers had lower odds of AL receipt than those who sought treatment from CHWs. Conclusion: Despite nationwide CCM scale-up over the last decade, significant barriers persist in malaria patients' access to diagnosis and treatment in Zambia. Our results indicate that while CCM coverage should be maintained and further expanded, additional complementary interventions are also needed to overcome remaining access barriers.

10
Development and Validation of a Point-of-Care Triage Scorecard to Enhance Tuberculosis Case Detection During Active Community Screening in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Catrianiningsih, D.; Felisia, F.; Abdalla, A. S.; Puspitasari, S.; Dwihardiani, B.; Mulia, H. N.; Hidayat, A.; Triasih, R.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361569 medRxiv
Top 2%
4.4%
Show abstract

In primary healthcare centers lacking advanced imaging, community-based active tuberculosis (TB) case finding often relies on basic symptom screening. This approach often misses cases and leads to the inefficient allocation of rapid molecular testing (RMT). We aimed to develop and internally validate a simple clinical triage scorecard to improve TB detection and guide RMT use in resource-constrained settings. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of 15,137 adults ([&ge;]18 years) evaluated within the Zero TB Yogyakarta program (2020-2025). Participants with complete clinical assessments and confirmatory GeneXpert results were included. Using multivariable logistic regression, we identified independent clinical predictors, which were subsequently transformed into an integer-based point scorecard. Model performance was evaluated via discrimination and calibration, utilizing bootstrap resampling (1,000 iterations) for internal validation. Among the 15,137 participants, 251 (1.7%) were GeneXpert-positive. The final multivariable model identified eight independent predictors: age, male sex, body mass index, prolonged cough, hemoptysis, unexplained weight loss, TB contact history, and diabetes mellitus. The model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, with an optimism-adjusted AUROC of 0.836 and good calibration. When translated to the integer scorecard and compared directly to standard national symptom screening, the scorecard performed (AUROC 0.81 vs. 0.73; p<0.001). At a high sensitivity cut off score of [&ge;] 0, the tool achieved 93.63% sensitivity and 41.33% specificity. This point-of-care clinical scorecard provides higher diagnostic accuracy than standard symptom screening algorithms. By offering flexible operational thresholds, it empowers local health programs to dynamically balance the urgency of case detection with available diagnostic capacity, optimizing GeneXpert allocation where advanced radiological imaging is unavailable.

11
Types, Subtypes and Positivity Rates of Seasonal Influenza in Uganda, 2019-2023

Nankya, M. A.; Owor, N.; Kayiwa, J. T.; Lutwama, J. J.; Gidudu, S.; Bahizi, G.; Ario, A. R.

2026-09-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361662 medRxiv
Top 2%
3.2%
Show abstract

Background: Seasonal influenza, commonly known as flu, is an acute respiratory, highly contagious illness caused by influenza viruses. A clear understanding of influenza seasonality is crucial for guiding prevention and treatment strategies, including decisions on vaccination timing to prevent outbreaks. While well documented in temperate regions, data on influenza epidemiology in tropical areas, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, remain limited. We described the types, subtypes and positivity rate of seasonal influenza in Uganda during 2019-2023. Methods: We abstracted data from the National Influenza database on positive seasonal influenza cases confirmed by Polymerase Chain Reaction. The cases were disaggregated by age group, sex, region, month and year of reporting. Using Microsoft excel, we calculated the influenza positivity rate and disaggregated it by strain, sex, age, region and time. Test positivity rate was computed as the number of positive cases as a percentage of the total samples tested. Results: Among 17,957 individuals tested, the overall positivity rate for seasonal influenza was 5% (936 cases). Positivity was higher among males compared to females (7% vs. 4%), with children aged 5-9 years having the highest positivity rate (16%), while individuals aged 50-54 years had the lowest (1%). The median positivity rate was 4%, with a range of 1-16%. Regionally, the central region reported a positivity rate of 5%, with rates across all regions ranging from 5% to 8%. Over time, there was a gradual decline in positivity rates, decreasing from 16.5% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2023. Seasonal influenza exhibited bimodal peaks, with the primary peak occurring between March and May and a secondary peak from October to December. Influenza A was the predominant strain, accounting for 70% of seasonal influenza cases (669/936). Among the Influenza A subtypes, H3N2 was most common, representing 63% of cases (425/669). Conclusions: The declining seasonal influenza positivity rates from 2019 to 2023 and the predominance of Influenza A and H3N2 highlight the need for sustained surveillance in Uganda. Given Influenza A's high genetic variability and potential for novel strain emergence, monitoring circulating strains, informing vaccine development, and implementing targeted interventions for high-risk groups and regions are critical to controlling and preventing outbreaks.

12
Cognitive Impairment Among People with Epilepsy in Peru

Allen, S. E.; Phillips, C.; Wardle, M. T.; Moyano, L. M.; Bustos, J. A.; Rojas, L. L.; Reto, N.; Bolivar, L. M.; O'Neal, S.; Garcia, H. H.; Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru (CWGP),

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361672 medRxiv
Top 3%
2.6%
Show abstract

Objective: Cognitive impairment is a common comorbidity among people with epilepsy (PWE) and is associated with disability and reduced quality of life. We characterized the burden of cognitive impairment and identified factors associated with cognitive performance in a large, population-based cohort of PWE living in Northern Peru, a region highly endemic for Taenia solium where neurocysticercosis (NCC) is a common cause of acquired epilepsy. Methods: PWE enrolled in a population-based cohort in Northern Peru between 2007 and 2020 completed the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) at enrollment. Cognitive impairment was defined as an MMSE score <24. Demographic and clinical data, including epilepsy characteristics and NCC status, were collected. Negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with the number of MMSE errors. Results: Among 764 participants, the mean MMSE score was 26.4 (SD 4.2), and 16.4% met criteria for cognitive impairment. Memory and attention were the most affected domains. In multivariable analysis, older age and lower educational attainment were independently associated with poorer cognitive performance. Conclusion: In this large, community-based cohort from Northern Peru, approximately 1 in 6 PWE had abnormal global cognition on the MMSE, with memory and attention most affected. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating cognitive evaluation and management into comprehensive epilepsy care, particularly in resource-limited settings where cognitive morbidity may be underrecognized. Given the potential for cognitive difficulties to compound disability and adversely affect quality of life, identifying and addressing cognitive morbidity may be especially important in populations already facing substantial barriers to epilepsy care.

13
Spatiotemporal Mapping of Point-of-Care Diagnostic Accessibility: A Data-Driven Pipeline for Point-of-Care Distribution Analysis in Western Uganda

Bergman, D.; Nyehangane, D.; Besancon, L.; Podkorytova, M.; Tsoumari, V.; Staikoglou, D.; Kimuli, A. N.; Richard, M. R.; Ogwok, P.; Nankoma, C.; Alfven, T.; Mwanga-Amumpaire, J.; Gaudenzi, G.

2026-09-01 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361594 medRxiv
Top 3%
2.4%
Show abstract

All primary healthcare centers owned by the Ugandan government in the Western Region of Uganda were submitted to a questionnaire concerning current availability of POCT from the Essential diagnostic List 2 part 1a and 1b, and the African laboratory inventory done by African Society of Laboratory Medicine and AfricaCDC. The data from the questionnaire was then linked to open source geodata provided by TomTom, and population data to calculate and visualize the accessibility of captured POCT. Findings: Availability of POCT Malaria is almost 100%, HIV 68-90%, and >30% for a majority of the POCT in the EDL-2 panel. 90% of the population in Western Region live within 1 hour by car from most of the essential POCT. Figures in the complementary web-based application visualize the accessibility of POCT for Western Uganda. Diagnostic deserts are visualized. Interpretation: Access to POCT at primary health care facilities in western Uganda has expanded substantially over the past decades. The geo-mapping tool presented here could inform policy decisions on strengthening diagnostic capacity at the national, regional, and provincial level. Funding: Swedish Research Council and Infravis All supplementary materials and a preprint of this submission are available on our OSF repository https://osf.io/j7puk/.

14
Software Application Profile: A real-time surveillance system for monitoring heat exposure and its health impacts - presenting the Rio de Janeiro Heat Dashboard

de Araujo Morais, J. H.; Dias Ferreira, C.; Saraceni, V.; Medeiros de Oliveira Cruz, D.; Mateus Oliveira Aguilar, G.; Cruz, O. G.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361449 medRxiv
Top 3%
1.8%
Show abstract

Motivation: With the scaling frequency and intensity of extreme heat events across the globe, it is critical for public institutions to develop early detection systems and continuous monitoring of these events and their impacts. In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro was the first city to publish its heat protocol, with the Rio Heat Dashboard as a central component of this system. Implementation: The dashboard was implemented using R/Shiny and integrates climatic and health data from multiple sources. General features: The application comprises real-time heat exposure monitoring and automatic alert level classification, which is monitored daily by multiple municipal actors and supports activation of actions specified in the heat protocol. It also features a health impact module, which lists each heat event and its impact on mortality, and primary care and emergency visits. Availability: The source for full reproducibility is available through https://github.com/joaohmorais/RioHeatDashboard.

15
Stakeholder perspectives on the potential introduction of a novel tuberculosis vaccine for adolescents and adults in Pakistan: A qualitative study

Hassan, Z.; Zurez, Z.; Saad, M.; Ahsan, N.; Clark, R. A.; White, R. G.; Kazi, A. M.; Nelson, K.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360963 medRxiv
Top 4%
1.7%
Show abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge globally, with Pakistan ranking among the highest TB burden countries worldwide. Although several novel TB vaccine candidates for adolescents and adults are advancing through late-stage clinical trials, little is known about how these vaccines may be introduced in high-burden settings such as Pakistan. Understanding stakeholder perspectives is crucial for informing early implementation planning and policy development. Methods: We conducted an exploratory qualitative study using semi-structured in-depth interviews with key stakeholders involved in TB control, immunization, clinical care, and health policy in Pakistan. Participants were purposively selected from national and provincial TB programs, Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), clinical settings, and academia. Interviews were conducted in English or Urdu, audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis following the Braun and Clarke framework. A hybrid deductive-inductive coding approach was used. Results: Ten stakeholders participated including one whose interview also served as a pilot test of the interview guide. Participants expressed strong support for the introduction of a new TB vaccine, driven largely by Pakistan's high TB burden and the limitations of current prevention strategies. However, support was based on the availability of strong evidence regarding vaccine safety, effectiveness, and feasibility. Key barriers to vaccine acceptability included low perceived risk of TB, misinformation, stigma, sociocultural influences, and limited public awareness. Stakeholders emphasized community engagement, trusted healthcare providers, and effective communication as critical enablers. Health system challenges included workforce shortages, cold chain limitations, and financing constraints. Household contacts of TB patients were consistently identified as the priority group followed by adolescents and people living with HIV. A phased implementation strategy was broadly preferred followed by gradual integration into existing health services. Conclusion: Stakeholders in Pakistan broadly support new TB vaccines for adolescents and adults. Successful implementation will require addressing sociocultural barriers, strengthening health system capacity, and developing context-specific delivery and prioritization strategies. Early stakeholder engagement and implementation planning are essential for meaningful public health impact in Pakistan.

16
Patterns of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Associated Cognitive Factors Among Flood Victims in Hanang District, Tanzania

Mwana, E. M.; Katalambula, L.; Emidi, B.; Nyundo, A.

2026-09-03 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361894 medRxiv
Top 4%
1.5%
Show abstract

Background Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters worldwide and are increasingly associated with adverse mental health outcomes, particularly Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). In December 2023, Hanang District in northern Tanzania experienced catastrophic mud floods that resulted in extensive loss of life, destruction of property, displacement of households, and disruption of livelihoods. While emergency humanitarian responses focused primarily on physical needs, limited evidence exists regarding the long-term psychological consequences among survivors. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the patterns of PTSD manifestations and assess cognitive factors associated with PTSD symptoms among flood victims in Hanang District, Tanzania. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 360 flood victims one year after the disaster. PTSD symptoms were assessed using the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). Descriptive statistics summarized PTSD severity, while chi-square tests and regression analyses examined associations between socio-demographic characteristics and PTSD manifestations. Cognitive factors were assessed based on participants' exposure to traumatic experiences and perceptions of traumatic events. Results The mean PCL-5 score was 39.2 (SD = 20.6), indicating a high burden of psychological distress. Approximately 45% of respondents had severe PTSD symptoms (PCL-5 [&ge;]45), while another substantial proportion demonstrated moderate symptom severity. PTSD manifestations varied significantly by geographical location (p < 0.001), household income (p = 0.011), and marital status (p = 0.002). Age positively predicted PTSD severity ({beta} = 0.019, p = 0.001), whereas household income negatively predicted symptom severity ({beta} = -0.297, p = 0.001). Exposure to natural disasters constituted the predominant cognitive factor, with 45% directly experiencing the flood and 38.3% witnessing the event. Exposure to secondary traumatic experiences through witnessing or learning about violent events was also common. Cognitive trauma exposure demonstrated a significant association with PTSD symptoms ({chi}2, p < 0.001). Conclusion PTSD remains highly prevalent among flood survivors in Hanang district. Both direct and indirect trauma exposure significantly contributed to PTSD manifestations. Comprehensive disaster recovery programmes should integrate trauma-focused psychological services, cognitive behavioural interventions, routine PTSD screening, and community-based psychosocial support alongside socioeconomic recovery initiatives.

17
Vaginal Steaming Practices Among Women At Mulago Sti Clinic, Uganda: Prevalence, Lactobacilli Proportion Differences, And Associated Factors.

Kakai, D.; Twinamasiko, N.; Kigozi, E.; Namutale, R.; Mutesi, B. A.; Bagaya, J.; Akinyi, L.; Kajumbula, H.; Nakubulwa, S.

2026-09-01 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361407 medRxiv
Top 4%
1.5%
Show abstract

Abstract Background: Vaginal steaming has gained popularity among women for reasons known best to them. However, the effects of vaginal steaming on vaginal lactobacilli levels remain poorly understood and understudied. This study investigated the prevalence, assessed differences in the presence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) among women who practiced vaginal steaming and those who do not and determined the factors associated with vaginal steaming among women attending Mulago Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) clinic in Uganda. Methods: This study utilized a cross-sectional design to enroll 181 women aged 18 to 49 years who were systematically sampled at Mulago STI clinic. Interviews were conducted to obtain the demographic characteristics of the participants. Vaginal swabbing and Gram staining were done to attain lactobacilli counts by microscopy which were categorized using the Nugent score. Data were analyzed using Stata. The potential confounding effects of other variables on the relation between vaginal steaming and the presence of bacterial vaginosis as well as factors associated with vaginal steaming were assessed using modified Poisson regression. Results: Prevalence of vaginal steaming was 40.3%, (95% confidence interval (CI) 33.0% - 48.0%). There were 41.1% women who practiced vaginal steaming occasionally, 53.4% who used hot water having herbs and 78.1% who practiced vaginal steaming for medical reasons. There was no difference in the presence of bacterial vaginosis when women who practiced vaginal steaming were compared to those who did not (p-value = 0.286). Factors that were significantly associated with vaginal steaming included having experienced vaginal issues (aPR = 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 - 0.12, p value = < 0.001) and contraceptive use (aPR= 0.52, 95% CI 0.37 - 0.72, p value = 0.001). Conclusions: About 2 in every 5 women at Mulago STI clinic reported to have indulged in vaginal steaming. There was no difference in the presence of bacterial vaginosis when women who practiced vaginal steaming were compared to those who did not. Having experienced vaginal issues and contraceptive use were significantly associated with vaginal steaming among women at Mulago STI clinic, Uganda. The Ministry of Health of Uganda should establish targeted screening and treatment for bacterial vaginosis alongside other sexually transmitted infections.

18
Rural-urban disparities and associated factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Zambia: A convergent mixed-methods study using the Proximate Determinant Framework.

Wantakisha, E. W. R.; Nyirenda, S.; Narayani, M.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361355 medRxiv
Top 4%
1.4%
Show abstract

Background Rural-urban disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemiology remain poorly quantified and understood in Zambia despite differences in healthcare access, services and preventive interventions. This study examined the geographical distribution and associated factors of SARS-CoV-2 cases across selected rural and urban districts of Zambia. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study comprised of quantitative survey and qualitative interviews was conducted in; Ndola (Urban), Kafue (Peri-urban) and Lufwanyama (Rural). The proximate determinant framework guided variable selection and interpretation. Quantitative combined (Hospital-surveillance data with community survey), while qualitative included In-depth interviews. Participants were sampled using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data were analysed using STATA version 17, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Findings were integrated through triangulation. Results A total of 528 participants were included, with a median age 31 years (15-71). Overall SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 12.6%, varying across rural (16.5%), peri-urban (14.9%), and urban (9.9%) settings, though residence was not associated with infection (P<0.132). Participants aged [&ge;]49 years had significantly higher odds of infection (aOR=8.78; 95% CI:1.15-66.99), whereas secondary education (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.16-0.86) and hospital-based testing (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.15-0.92) were associated with lower odds of infection. Vaccine uptake was highest in urban areas but was not independently associated with infection. Qualitative findings revealed marked rural-urban differences in perceived susceptibility, testing access, vaccine decision-making, and adherence to preventive measures, explaining several quantitative observations. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 infection across rural and urban settings in Zambia was influenced by demographic, behavioral, and health-system factors rather than geographic residence alone. These findings highlight the need for context-specific prevention strategies, equitable access to testing, strengthened community surveillance, and targeted risk communication to improve preparedness and response for future respiratory disease outbreaks.

19
Hiatal Hernia Size and De Novo Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease After Sleeve Gastrectomy: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

Ricarte Almeida, E. R.; Mata Quintero, C. J.; Sesma Chazaro, J.; Peralta Rivera, C.; Arteaga Gonzalez, C. D.

2026-09-02 surgery 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361833 medRxiv
Top 4%
1.1%
Show abstract

Background: Sleeve gastrectomy is the most frequently performed bariatric procedure worldwide but is associated with the development of de novo gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Hiatal hernia has been identified as a relevant anatomical factor in postoperative reflux, although most studies evaluate it dichotomously without analyzing whether its size influences GERD risk. The aim was to evaluate the association between preoperative hiatal hernia size and de novo GERD after sleeve gastrectomy. Methods: Retrospective, single - center, observational study of patients undergoing sleeve gastrectomy at Hospital Central Norte de Petroleos Mexicanos (2018 - 2025). Demographic and clinical characteristics, endoscopic classification of hiatal hernia size (small <2 cm, medium 2.1 - 4 cm, large >4 cm), and evidence of de novo GERD were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Fisher's exact test, odds ratio (=R) estimation with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and binary logistic regression. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results: Fiftysix patients were included (mean age 48.3 {+/-} 8.1 years; 67.9% male). Hiatal hernia classification was conclusive in 46 patients (82.1%): 63.0% no hernia, 4.3% small, 30.4% medium, and 2.2% large. De novo GERD occurred in 14.0% of patients without preexisting GERD (6/43). No significant association was found between hiatal hernia size and de novo GERD (Fisher p=0.515). In the reduced logistic model, neither hiatal hernia (medium/large vs. absent/small; OR 3.47; 95% CI 0.50 - 29.43; p=0.207) nor age (OR 1.02; 95% CI 0.90 - 1.13; p=0.754) was significantly associated. No evaluated factor (sex, smoking, alcohol, age) reached significance. Conclusions: In this cohort, no statistically significant association was demonstrated between preoperative hiatal hernia size and de novo GERD after sleeve gastrectomy; however, the low number of events limits the ability to exclude a clinically relevant association. These findings are compatible with a multifactorial mechanism rather than with the isolated presence of this finding. Prospective studies with larger sample sizes and standardized reflux assessment instruments are required to confirm these results.

20
INTerrupting prolifERation of Carbapenem resistance in Indonesia: clinical and genomic Evaluation of Pathways of Transmission (INTERCEPT) : a Study Protocol

Farida, H.; Hapsari, R.; Lestari, E. S.; Farhanah, N.; Roberts, A. P.; Graf, F. E.; Dacombe, R. E.; Moore, M. E.; Lewis, J. M.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361608 medRxiv
Top 4%
1.1%
Show abstract

Background Carbapenem-resistant bacteria are a major global public health threat, classified as critical priority pathogens by the WHO. In Indonesia, despite a national antimicrobial resistance control programme established by the Ministry of Health in 2015, resistance rates continue to rise, including increasing carbapenem resistance among clinically important bacteria. Strengthening approaches to directly interrupt transmission is essential, yet transmission pathways remain poorly understood with limited research and policy guidance within the Indonesian context. Methods and analysis The INTERCEPT study is a UK-Indonesia multidisciplinary collaboration aiming to identify transmission routes of carbapenem-resistant bacteria across healthcare and community settings, and the mechanisms of resistance gene transfer between bacteria and mobile genetic elementss. We will conduct genomic surveillance of hospital inpatients, healthcare workers, hospital environments, and surrounding communities, including wastewater systems, combined with genomic analyses and mathematical transmission modelling. A cohort of patients with bloodstream infections will be recruited to evaluate resistant bacteria, treatment practices, and clinical outcomes. Qualitative research will explore behavioural and system-level factors influencing transmission and intervention implementation. Findings will inform stakeholder workshops to co-design context-specific interventions, with pilot intervention over 9 months with pre- and post-intervention assessment to guide scalable strategies to reduce AMR transmission. Discussion The INTERCEPT study addresses carbapenem resistance in Indonesia using an integrated approach combining microbiological surveillance, genomics, modelling, and qualitative methods. Strengths include cross-sectoral analysis (patients, workers, environment) and participatory intervention design. Limitations include geographic scope restricted to Central Java, Indonesia.